Project
Middle East Perspectives
A forum for discussion of the most pressing issues facing the Middle East and U.S. policymakers.
About Project
Featuring sober analysis from regional and Western experts on the Middle East’s structural and geopolitical issues. The contributors are not affiliated with the Stimson Center.
Project Team
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Research & Writing
Commentary
Israel Cannot Achieve Normalization with Lebanon by Bombing It
An updated armistice agreement could pave the way for a serious conversation about border demarcation and an end to all wars that use South Lebanon as a launching pad.
April 21, 2026
Commentary
Beneath the Strait: Iran Could Threaten Gulf Data Centers, Undersea Cables
The conflict with Iran has exposed tech infrastructure to new acute threats, with Iranian drones striking data centers in Bahrain and the UAE.
April 16, 2026
Commentary
Turkey Also Tries to Mediate an End to the US-Israeli War on Iran
Given the failure of direct talks to resolve the conflict, the likeliest near-term outcome is intensified indirect diplomacy via multiple intermediaries including Pakistan, Egypt, and Oman in addition to Turkey.
April 13, 2026
Commentary
The Motives and Constraints Behind Pakistan’s Mediation Between the US and Iran
Pakistan’s initiative is undermined by its own political limitations vis-à-vis both Iran and the United States.
April 9, 2026
Commentary
How to Read the Houthis’ Late Entry Into the Iran War
Given the month-long delay, the Houthis’ missile launch reads less as an operational decision than as a political one.
March 30, 2026
Commentary
Iran’s Not So New Leaders May Strike a Hard Bargain
Israel’s assassination campaign has led to the promotion of IRGC old-timers who are likely to prove more hostile to the U.S. and less nimble in negotiating an end to the war.
March 26, 2026
Commentary
Where the American-Israeli War on Iran Leaves the Gulf Arabs
GCC states are moving toward a more confrontational posture with long-term negative ramifications for relations with Iran.
March 25, 2026
Commentary
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Path Will Not Depend on Iran or the War’s Outcome
Saudi Arabia’s evolving nuclear calculus reflects not only Iran’s program but also eroding U.S. security guarantees.
March 23, 2026
Commentary
South Pars Strike Marks Major Step in Persian Gulf Energy Warfare
The crisis has shifted from a logistical bottleneck to a structural supply shock, with far more severe implications for global energy stability.
March 19, 2026
Commentary
How Will Mojtaba Khamenei Rule Iran — and for How Long?
What Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession could mean for Iran’s politics, regional posture, and relations with the United States.
March 11, 2026
Commentary
The Political Economy of Blows Against Iran’s Military and Civilian Infrastructure
While the Islamic Republic spent billions on missiles and regional military adventures, it failed to build and maintain an effective air defense system.
March 9, 2026
Commentary
After Operation Epic Fury: Debating the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Project
Will Iran move toward accelerated weaponization, strategic recalibration within a threshold posture, or a redefinition of its nuclear ambitions altogether?
March 9, 2026
Video
Who Will Rule Iran in a Widening Middle East War?
Iran’s retaliation has expanded the conflict across the Middle East. Stimson Center Distinguished Fellow Barbara Slavin explains the growing regional risks and the uncertain future of Iran’s leadership.
March 5, 2026
Commentary
What Would Be Indicators of Regime Collapse in Iran?
A fierce but brittle regime can hang on for a long time in the absence of a unified, national opposition enjoying outside help.
March 5, 2026
Commentary
The Houthis Must Decide: Join Iran’s War Against the US and Israel or Abandon Iran
The next few days will indicate whether the Houthis will follow their ideology or turn inward.
March 3, 2026
Commentary
Global Markets and the Strait of Hormuz: The Economic Shockwaves of the Iran War
A soft closure of the Strait of Hormuz can inflict much of the same damage as a declared blockade.
March 3, 2026
Commentary
After Khamenei: Regional Reckoning and the Future of Iran’s Proxy Networks
Rebuilding Iran’s proxy network is going to be challenging given the structural shifts that have eroded its foundations.
March 2, 2026
Commentary
Iran After Khamenei: Recalibration or Retrenchment?
There are no guarantees that whoever follows Khamenei will be an improvement, but popular protests have exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability more dramatically at this time.
February 28, 2026
Commentary
Israel’s Strategic Consensus on Iran — and Its Risks
The prevailing consensus reduces incentives for strategic innovation, even as the cycle of confrontation persists.
February 23, 2026
Commentary
Azerbaijan Seeks to Balance Ties with Israel, Turkey & Iran
Azerbaijan is watching rising unrest in neighboring Iran and the prospect of new Israeli or American strikes on that country with concern.
February 18, 2026
Commentary
Scenarios for Iran’s Future and Implications for GCC Security
Gulf states fear not only a belligerent Iran but also Iranian fragmentation, escalation, and strategic miscalculation.
February 13, 2026
Commentary
Iran’s Uncertain Transition: From the Streets to a Strongman
Even after Khamenei dies, it is unclear whether Iran can produce a new unifying leader or a transition to a liberal democratic order.
February 12, 2026
Commentary
Russia Ramps up Mediation Efforts in the Middle East
The main challenge is division of Iranians into “insiders” versus “outsiders,” which exacerbates divisions among elites and political and civil society activists.
February 2, 2026
Commentary
Why the Latest Iran Protests Started in the Tehran Bazaar
The main challenge is division of Iranians into “insiders” versus “outsiders,” which exacerbates divisions among elites and political and civil society activists.
January 27, 2026
Commentary
What Future Awaits Syria’s Kurds?
A narrow space remains for dialogue between the SDF and the Syrian government to prevent the country from sliding into another cycle of terrorism and revenge.
January 23, 2026
Commentary
Disarming Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Without Addressing Syria’s Jihadis Won’t Work
Without structural solutions that address both fronts together, the region is heading toward another cycle of sectarian violence.
January 21, 2026
Commentary
For Now, the US Holds Off on Attacking Iran
Not bombing Iran does not mean abandoning its people.
January 15, 2026
Commentary
Turkey-Israel Rivalry in the New Syria
In seven months after Assad fell, Israel attacked Syria nearly 1000 times.
January 14, 2026
Commentary
Saudi Arabia Takes Full Control of Yemen’s South
The internationally recognized government of Yemen remains in place, but the locus of decision-making has shifted to Riyadh.
January 12, 2026
Commentary
More Spasms of Violence Await the Middle East in 2026
From Iran to Yemen, Lebanon to Syria to Gaza and the West Bank, more people are likely to die from armed confrontations, humanitarian failures, and external intervention.
January 7, 2026
Commentary
In Iran Protests, Information Spreads Faster than Organization
Greater access to information, ironically, limits the ability of protestors to coalesce into a single, decisive political force.
January 5, 2026
Commentary
Kurdish Peace Process Makes Slow Gains, With Regional Ramifications
A major challenge to the peace process involves the future of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish forces in Syria.
December 17, 2025
Commentary
Iran’s Desalination Pipeline Is More Stopgap Than Solution
The project fits a long-standing pattern in Iran of improvisation rather than reform.
December 11, 2025
Commentary
Cybercrime is Iraq’s Next Big Challenge
Iraq’s cyber vulnerabilities are rooted in legacy systems, underfunded IT governance, underdeveloped legal protections, and the worldwide phenomenon of digital illiteracy.
November 24, 2025
Commentary
Europe, the Gulf, and Gaza: A Quest for More Geopolitical Relevance
The EU has yet to fully wield its political and economic weight, which risks eroding its credibility as a strategic partner for the GCC in managing regional tensions.
November 20, 2025
Commentary
Khamenei’s Eclipse: Absolute Rule Crumbles into Paralysis and Infighting in Iran
The leader’s eclipse has left Iran without a functioning helm and caused stasis across all sectors even as the country faces unprecedented domestic and foreign challenges.
November 12, 2025
Commentary
Caspian Sea Decline Harms Iran and Raises Regional Tensions
The Caspian coast of Iran is at a turning point, where environmental deterioration, economic losses, and geopolitical tensions collide.
November 7, 2025
Commentary
A Turning Point for Gulf Security?
Exploring Israel’s Doha strike and its strategic aftershocks in the GCC.
November 3, 2025
Commentary
Egypt and Saudi Arabia Construct a New Strategic Naval Axis
Concern over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees prior to Israel’s strike on Qatar facilitated the strategic rapprochement between Cairo and Riyadh.
October 30, 2025
Commentary
Gaza’s Armed Fragmentation: Clans, Militias, and Rival Power Centers
Many of the groups are supported by Israeli authorities who see Palestinian fragmentation as a way to both contain Hamas and to perpetuate Israel’s occupation.
October 27, 2025
Commentary
New and Revived Energy Partnerships Boost Turkey and East-West Trade Routes
The reopening of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, Gulf-Turkey energy partnerships, and the Middle Corridor expansion point to an emerging infrastructure network that diminishes bottlenecks and empowers regional middle players.
October 23, 2025
Commentary
Russia Keeps a Foothold in Post-Assad Syria
A visit to Moscow by the Syrian president followed months of preliminary contacts.
October 21, 2025
Commentary
Israel Needs a Better Strategy to Defeat the Houthis in Yemen
Even if the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas holds, Israel’s Houthi problem is unlikely to disappear.
October 16, 2025
Commentary
Gaza Ceasefire Could Give Iran Another Chance at Negotiations with the US
If the accord survives its initial stages, Iranian hard-liners could face a stark choice: support the peace agreement, redefining Iran’s regional role, or oppose it, risking alienation from Palestinian allies and even more diminished regional influence.
October 15, 2025
Commentary
Turkey’s Ruling Party Uses the Courts to Defeat its Political Opposition
What began as a series of scattered corruption cases and allegations of procedural irregularities has evolved into a sprawling legal campaign that threatens the CHP’s organizational survival, leadership legitimacy, and electoral viability.
October 9, 2025
Commentary
War or Peace: Will the Gaza-Israel Agony Finally End?
A temporary ceasefire that returns the hostages and relieves the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza would be a major achievement
October 7, 2025
Commentary
Iran’s Oil Exports: Resilience Amid Sanctions and ‘Snapback’
Tehran has become proficient at evasion measures such as ship-to-ship transfers of oil, disabling Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking, and alternative payment mechanisms that circumvent the dollar-based international financial network.
October 2, 2025
Commentary
The ‘Wall of Mistrust’ Grows Thicker Between the US and Iran
The collapse of the JCPOA marks a new nadir in intermittent efforts to resolve conflicts dating from the 1979 Islamic revolution.
September 29, 2025
Commentary
Germany’s Weapon Freeze: Political Gesture or Policy Shift?
An August 10 announcement suspending the German export of offensive weapons to Israel has ignited intense debate on the real impact of this decision.
September 25, 2025
Commentary
Pakistan-Saudi Pact Reveals Growing Distrust of US-Led Security Architecture
The decision by the two countries reflects growing unease among wealthy Arab petrostates about the willingness of the United States to defend them against what they see as an increasingly unconstrained Israel.
September 22, 2025
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