Project

Myanmar

Furthering research on the country’s civil-military relations, ethnic reconciliation, and geopolitical dilemmas

About Project

Myanmar’s February 2021 coup was the latest chapter in the country’s long history of balancing complex internal politics and pulling in contradictory directions. While the coup upended the fragile balance of power between the military and civilian leadership, anticipating the country’s future peace, stability, and development requires more than ever objective understanding of the unsettled relationship between the two sides and its profound impact on all conflicts across the country.

This project analyzes Myanmar’s complex politics and uncertain future by unpacking the power dynamics at play between the military, the civilian opposition, ethnic armed groups, as well as external players like ASEAN and the West. The project builds on Stimson’s more than a decade of working on Burmese democratization, ethnic reconciliation, development, and external relations.

Research & Writing

Resource

Update on China-Myanmar Relations

This monthly update highlights major events, statements, and bilateral interactions driving China’s relations with Myanmar at a time when the junta sees China as a crucial partner.
February 20, 2026

Resource

Update on China-Myanmar Relations

This monthly update highlights major events, statements, and bilateral interactions driving China’s relations with Myanmar at a time when the junta sees China as a crucial partner.
January 9, 2026

Commentary

Symbolic Alignment: Why the Myanmar Junta Is Expanding Its Engagement with Russia

Analyzing the Myanmar military regime’s recent engagement with Russia and prospects for cooperation going forward.
December 17, 2025

Issue Brief

Beyond Ballots: The Junta Chief’s Elite Management Strategy Ahead of Myanmar’s Elections

How the leader of Myanmar’s junta manages power within the military and what it means ahead of the elections.
December 11, 2025

Issue Brief

How International Funding Shapes Myanmar Pro-Democracy CSOs’ Activism in the Post-Coup Era

Analyzing the challenges facing Myanmar’s pro-democracy CSOs in an era of state repression and a shifting funding landscape.
November 20, 2025

Commentary

Myanmar’s December Election: Engineering Continuity Through Institutional Redesign

While regional states might be open to accepting the results of Myanmar’s upcoming election, the design and structure are being engineered by the military to ensure its continued grip on power.
August 20, 2025

Commentary

Four Reasons Why Proposals to Source Rare Earth Minerals from Myanmar Will Not Succeed

Recent proposals to source rare earths from Myanmar are untenable, reflecting a misalignment between geopolitical ambition and ground-level constraints.
August 1, 2025

Explainer

Rare Earths and Realpolitik

June 24, 2025

Commentary

Access Without Troops: The Rise of Private Security in Southeast Asia

How China uses private military and security companies to protect its investments.
June 20, 2025

Issue Brief

The Arakan Axis: Insurgency Intensifies in Southwest Myanmar

The Arakan Army expands its influence across southwestern Myanmar with an extensive network of allies.
June 5, 2025

Commentary

Cyber Scam Centers: A Growing Flashpoint in China-Myanmar Relations

As China weighs its strategy toward Myanmar, the rise of cyber scam centers is an increasing concern for Beijing’s interests.
April 7, 2025

Issue Brief

Too Little, Too Late: China Steps Up Military Aid to Myanmar’s Junta

China has doubled down on aid to Myanmar’s military government, but this might not turn the tide of the conflict.
March 4, 2025

Commentary

Rethinking US Myanmar Policy in a Second Trump Administration

U.S. policy towards Myanmar has been ineffectual, but the Trump administration has the chance to change it
January 17, 2025

Field Note

The Prospect of Junta-led Elections in an Uncertain Myanmar

While the conflict in Myanmar continues, the junta prepares for elections in 2025.
November 21, 2024

Issue Brief

China in Myanmar: How the Game-Changing Neighbor Would Continue to Maintain Its Influence

As Myanmar’s junta loses its grip on power, China still seeks to maximize its influence with all parties in the civil war.
August 26, 2024

Commentary

The Promises and Challenges of a New U.S. Congressional Burma Caucus

What does the recent launch of the U.S. House of Representatives Congressional Burma Caucus mean for the future of U.S. policy on Myanmar?
July 1, 2024

Issue Brief

Challenges and Perspectives of Political Parties on Democracy and Elections in Myanmar

A new registration law for political parties in Myanmar leaves them facing an uncertain future for democracy in the country.
March 26, 2024

Explainer

Chinland Council Established in Myanmar

Chin leaders in northwestern Myanmar have fostered unity and pushed towards the establishment of a new governing body.
January 11, 2024

Commentary

Many Sanctions, Few Friends: Junta Grapples with its Grip on Power

With sanctions on the rise, Myanmar’s military is increasingly under pressure and is turning to its few partners for additional support
October 11, 2023

Policy Memo

Myanmar Reveals ASEAN’s Weak Spot Again

For over two and a half years, ASEAN has struggled to create an effective policy on Myanmar
July 25, 2023

Policy Memo

Unraveling China’s Strategic Re-engagement in Myanmar

As the international community ponders how to approach the Myanmar crisis, China has revamped its engagement in hopes of strengthening China-Myanmar relations
June 30, 2023

Policy Paper

Sustaining Funding for Myanmar’s Spring Revolution

In the third year since the coup in Myanmar, the resistance is evolving its funding, even as the junta targets those resources
May 17, 2023

Issue Brief

Understanding the Arakan Army

In a decade, the Arakan Army has become one of the most powerful ethnic armed groups in Myanmar and has expanded its administrative control in Rakhine State.
April 21, 2023

Issue Brief

Greater Military Cooperation is Needed in the Burmese Resistance Movement

As violence continues to escalate in Myanmar, resistance forces should facilitate greater military cooperation to leverage their strength against the military junta.
January 18, 2023

Sub-Projects

There are no subprojects associated with this project.

Events

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In Focus

Civil-Military Relations in Myanmar

About this Series

The “Civil-Military Relations in Myanmar” series seeks to analyze the complex relationship between the civilian and military sides of the Burmese government and the implications for the country’s future peace and development. Since the founding of the country, the Burmese military, or Tatmadaw, has held a unique and privileged status across institutions of power. And despite movement toward democracy in the past decade, the relationship between the civilian and military sides remains deeply unsettled. This contest for power and the political, security, and constitutional crises it creates have had far-reaching effects on Myanmar’s political processes, its ongoing civil war, the Rohingya crisis, and regional peace and stability—a reality most recently and poignantly seen in the 2021 coup d’état staged by the Tatmadaw against the civilian government. The series brings together the expertise of leading experts on Myanmar, Southeast Asia, democratization, and policy to uncover the complex dynamics between the two sides. The series provides key insights and recommendations for disentangling the contentious relationship and charting a path forward for relevant stakeholders in Myanmar.